Between now and the end of the year, a rise of 20% in housing sales transactions and an increase of around 4% in prices are expected. There are two main headlines shown by Informe del Sector Inmobiliario which the banking entity Bankinter offered last October. According to this report, housing is still considered to be a very important asset in which to invest in our country. In addition, all legislative changes that could take place regarding renting will, in no way whatsoever, alter the real estate panorama in a significant way. We can say that, according to this report, the forecasts of the sector will be far surpassed as a drop of 1% in housing prices at the end of 2021 was mentioned. In relation to the forthcoming years, the report predicts a moderation in prices, an increase of 2% in 2022, whereas in 2023 of 1%. Some weeks ago, we wrote an article in this blog about the price of housing in Spain and how it continues to rise. In that article, we said that during the second term of 2021 a year-on-year 3,3% increase had taken place, being the highest one since 2019. Nonetheless, Bankinter estimates that by the end of 2021 this increase will be even higher, as we have already said.

MORE HOUSEHOLD INCOMES AND LOW FINANCIAL COSTS

According to the real estate experts of this financial entity, there are two circumstances that will be favourable to housing sales from now till the end of the year. One of them is the increase in household incomes (it is estimated that at the end of 2021, the Gross Household Income may reach the levels previous to the health crisis, and that in 2022 the data will be even better thanks to the economic recovery). As for the other circumstance, it is related to the current low financial costs offered by the financial entities, and thus, facilitating access to mortgages. It is calculated that in Spain, before the health crisis, around 500.000 housing deals took place, this being the figure that might be reached by the end of 2021. In relation to 2022, perhaps this number of transactions might become stabilized (of these 500.000 transactions, 100.000 of them will correspond to new housing and 400.000 of them to second-hand property). At present, Spanish people are investing in housing. Furthermore, the international buyer is again little by little gaining prominence in our country after having experienced a negative impact caused by the coronavirus crisis. This fact makes us believe that next year the forecasts that stabilize the number of transactions can be achieved.

OFFICES, SHOPPING CENTRES AND HOTELS

According to Bankinter´s report, offices do not have the same optimistic forecasts as housing. This is because teleworking brought about a drop in the use of this type of premises and, in addition, there is uncertainty in relation to the role they will play in the forthcoming months. However, there is encouraging data regarding the sale of large surfaces as they have already shown signs of recovery even though it is estimated that shopping centres may continue to have economic adjustments during the coming months (until today, prices have dropped around 11%). Madrid and Barcelona will be, by far, the two cities where these kind of premises will be more successful. In relation to the hotel sector, an improvement is expected to take place during the second half of the year. Furthermore, occupancy levels could be around 70% compared to the levels that existed before the health crisis.

Picture 01: jannoon028

Picture 02: jcomp